Growth of a New Sahelian Power: Analysis 5 Months Post Colonels Coup
The Akata-Tribune presents analysis regarding the developments in the Sahel region and the potential that these three countries (Niger, Mali, Burkino Faso) have to become regional powers.
On September 16th, 2023, we at the Akata-Tribune presented analysis of the growing integration between the three Sahelian states (Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali) following the Niger military coup d’etat that occurred July 26, 2023. We predicted that the three countries would move toward forming of a new country that would become a regional power. This transition to a regional power is a multi-decade process that would require a concerted industrial and cooperative military program like the rise of Chinese industrial and military power. Even though this transition would require time to be fully seen, we can observe glimpses of this transition in the five months post-coup.
We have seen five events following the Coup in Niger: the creation of a defensive alliance, the push for the creation of a regional federation according to Africannews.org, the nationalization of Burkinabè gold, the nationalization of Nigerien uranium and the development of a monetary alliance. The three states are pursing a nationalist developmental policy and foreign policy: focused on balancing their relationship with the great powers, kicking out colonizing powers (the French) and consolidating their hold on their national territory. The three states are embattled in a conflict with Berber nationalist (see the Tuareg) and Islamist organizations right in the center of their shared border zone. These states have called on the use of the Russian Volunteer Assault Corp (formerly the Wagner organization) and Russian arms to help combat this insurgency: we will have to wait and see if this Russian intervention works. The key marker of the success of these states is the crushing of the Islamist/Berber Nationalist insurgency that has plague these countries since the NATO terrorist bombing of Libya and the opening of Libyan armories to all armed groups in the Sahel/North Africa.
The economic development of the three states has been limited by the instability caused by the insurgency and implemented by their former colonial master (the French). This is the second problem that which all three county’s shares. These countries still use the Franc, a currency controlled by the French national bank, as their national currency. This lack of monetary independence means that the key pillar of economic planning is done by the French central bank. This currency needs to be done away with if true sovereignty is to be achieved.
We also see these three states moving toward a monetary alliance. With the rich levels of natural resources, the viability of this new potential currency would be based in commodities rather than military force as the US dollar or the Franc. Economic development will also need to be couples with a diversity in international partners. We see these states moving toward Russia and Chinese economic aid in the development of electrical infrastructure. The Russians have recently agreed to build a nuclear power plant with the Burkinabè. These countries have also kept trade relations and coordination with the West open, allowing for a balancing of the great powers and receiving benefits from both camps as was done during the first cold war.
In the immediate term, we should expect to see increased military cooperation with the Russians along with economic cooperation with the Chinese and the Iranians. The Iranians are in a similar situation as the Sahel states, they are under a terrible plague of sanctions implemented by the west or western puppets (Ecowas countries). The Iranians know how to develop under isolation, this is good knowledge that they can pass to this group of three.
If the regimes are able to succeed in this task and bring stability to their respective countries, then this integration project can push be pushed through, and we could see a stable and truly developing Sahel region. If these regimes fail, these governments will continue to be non-factors and will remain in the economic state they were in before the coup, basket cases that serve to only be pillaged by western powers. The hope of the region rest on the success of these nationalist governments to implement a developmentalist industrial policy and to get a grip on the security situation in their countries.