Israeli Society Will Bleed Out in Gaza
In this piece I give my thoughts on the military prospect of Hamas and the Israeli military/society.
This is a speculative/analytical piece on the situation in historic Palestine (So Called Israel) and the coming offensive that the Israeli army is about to undertake against the besieged enclave of Gaza. I want to talk about the prospects of the IDF, Hamas and the results of the confrontation in the coming days, weeks, even years. I want to start off with a disclaimer that I am pro-Palestinian. I support the internationally recognized right (1) of the Palestinians to armed struggle for national liberation. The state of Israel is an ethno-state predicated on the establishment of a Jewish state by continued expropriation of Palestinian land, by the placing of the population into concentration camps (2), expulsion of the Palestinian people and increasingly genocide (3). These are tactics used by settler colonial regimes all over the world, including and especially in the United States. What is happening in historic Palestine and so-called Israel is the inevitable byproduct of the brutality of all settler-colonial regimes.
The explosive situation that started October 7th, 2023, did not start October 7th, 2023. Inarguably, it started in 2005 with the turning of Gaza into an open-air prison by the Israelis. For 17 years, the Israelis, with the help of the Egyptians, have had total control over what and who goes in and what and who goes out of Gaza. The Israelis even implemented a calorie counting regime to collectively punish the population of Gaza after the takeover of the region by Hamas (4). We must also speak of the violence carried out by the Israeli military. Prior to the new phase of this conflict, the Palestinians have lost 6,400 people dead and have 152,000 people injured. The Israelis have lost 308 dead and 6,307 people injured from 2007 to September of this year. It is of no wonder why the Israelis are going ballistic over this new escalation. For the first time in decades, they have suffered a major defeat by the hands of the Palestinian resistance. They have now experienced a fraction of what the Palestinians experience and now they are out for blood.
What is happening as of 10/10/2023 is that the Israelis are preparing to launch a ground invasion into Gaza. The Israelis have called up 300,000 reservists to be used in the military occupation of the Gaza strip (6). Hamas has been recorded to have 30,000 fighters (7), but with this recent attack, its sophistication and the response of the Israelis, of which Hamas must have known their reaction would be of this scale, those numbers have probably increased since the IDF estimate in 2021. The balance of power is clearly in Israel's favor if one simply glances at a comparison at both side’s arsenals. Israel has a modern military industrial complex and essentially endless aid coming from the United States. The Israelis have amassed tanks across the border area and have been bombing Gaza non-stop ever since Hamas’ incursion. Hamas has an impressive arsenal for a non-state actor, with some heavy weapons, UAVs and anti-tank capabilities, but it is not significant compared to the Israelis or Hezbollah (thought of to be the most powerful non-state actor in the world). Hamas isn’t the only actor in this flare up. The Islamic Jihad faction has considerable capabilities but is still far below Hamas in Capabilities. The advantages that the Gaza factions have is terrain, morale and the internal weaknesses of their enemy.
When the Israelis enter Gaza, they will do so fairly swiftly. With air superiority and the numbers advantage, there is no use in fighting in the open. They will take considerable military casualties, as the urban landscape is a notorious area to have offensive operations. This is especially true if the population is hostile to you, which Gaza is and will be. Hama’s home turf is a guerilla's wet dream, and with the network of tunnels that the militant group has built all across the Strip, they have the opportunity to inflict heavy casualties on the occupying force. This is where all 30-40 thousand Hamas fighters are at right now, shielded away from Israeli bombing. Israel will celebrate victory, probably even a decisive one at that, but they will not win this escalation. They will not win due to outside actors and the Fragility of Israeli Jewish society.
The outside actors' part is clear; Hezbollah, Iran and to a lesser extent the Houthis and Popular mobilization Units in Iraq will react dramatically to Israel exerting control over the Gaza strip. As of 10/10/2023, all of Hamas’ allies have stated their support for the organization. All of these entities have considerable military capacity and manpower. This does not count the support of Palestinians in Arab countries, regardless of what the governments of these countries do. The best example is Egypt. Egypt is collaborating with Israel to maintain the siege of Gaza, yet the population of overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian and oppose the Abraham Accords (12).
The second part requires more explanation and is more complex, but it is probably more important to the reason why Israel cannot win a counterinsurgency and urban warfare operation against Hamas. Israeli citizens enjoy a typical western lifestyle. They enjoy western incomes, go to western restaurants, watch western television, and enjoy the typical western lifespan (82 years, much higher than the United States). The modern western lifestyle is not conducive to a “spartan” state such as Israel and has led to dysfunction in the draft system that Israel depends on so much. This has led to problems in the past when it comes to operations the IDF attempts to undertake. The fact that so many Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed by such an “inferior” armed group shows the deep problems in the IDF and the Mossad (Israeli intelligence agency). This failure leads to weaknesses in the entire justification for the state of Israel, it being a “safe place for Jews”. 17 percent of Israeli Jews hold two passports, and the Israeli passport can get you to 156 countries visa free (11). According to the article cited previously, many jew (26%) want a foreign passport because they “worry about the state of Israel”. Due to the recent incursion by Hamas, this number will spike dramatically as many Jews who can flee the country. This is the fundamental fragility of Israel. Israel has a population that is well educated, mobile and has been shown to be big draft dodgers. Israelis, with all of their options, all of their wealth and being used to western lifestyles will not fight and die for Israel. Many Jews have stated they are willing to leave the country due to Netanyahu's reforms (28%) (11). The last few months before the fighting saw hundreds of thousands of Jews on the streets protesting the prime minister's overhaul of the Judicial system to keep himself in power.
Israel will bleed out in Gaza simply because Israeli Jewish society is a house of cards. Few Jewish persons (rightfully) will give their life to Israel if they can simply go somewhere else. Once the Israelis start taking serious casualties in Gaza, the fragility of Israeli society will become apparent. They are simply too casualty averse to perform the task at hand (13). This is what happened to the United States in Vietnam and to the French in Algeria and also Vietnam. The Israelis will not win. With their Hubris, their arrogance and blind rage, they risk destroying Israeli society from within.
References:
(1)https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2017/7/20/palestinians-have-a-legal-right-to-armed-struggle
(2)https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/06/14/gaza-israels-open-air-prison-15
(3)https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/09/israel-palestine-gaza-hamas-invasion-genocide-united-states/
(5)https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
(7)https://www.timesofisrael.com/senior-idf-commander-says-hamas-has-7000-rockets-dozens-of-drones/
(9)https://en.idi.org.il/articles/49118 *polarized Society*’
(10)https://jcpa.org/the-gaza-war-2014/hamas-tunnel-network/
(13)https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319177216_Sensitivity_to_Casualties_in_the_Battlefield_The_Case_of_Israe