Overview of the Russian-Ukraine War

Here is my brief analysis of the Russian Ukraine War.

Here is a map from before the start of the special military operation and a map of the current state of the operation. The battles to look at after Bakhmut falls would be Avdiivka, New York area, Siversk and some sort of offensive in the Southern Donetsk line of contact toward Vuhledar-Kurakhove area after the fall of Marinka (which the Russians are forming a pincer around). Some are saying that the Russians could push the North-Eastern Russian-Ukraine Boarder after Putin stressed that the military should try and prevent the shelling of Russian territory by Ukraine. This could potentially be the reason for the 300,000 reservist (which have not been committed yet. Only 80,000 new volunteers have been committed.) I believe the bulk of them will go toward securing Russian Controlled territory and bulking the line of contact.

The Russians have completed 1 and 1/2 of the goals they set out for the operation. The original were the 1) the demilitarization of Ukraine, 2) De-Nazification, 3)Securing the Donbass and 4) Create a Land bridge to Crimea. Number 4 has been completed and the Luhansk Peoples republic controls 99% of it's claimed territory. After Avdiivka and Bahkmut, the Donetsk Peoples Republic will essentially control all the key points in the Donetsk oblast. The rest of the territory should not be hard for the Russian military to secure. As for De-Nazification and De-Militarization, the Azov battalion and other Ukrainian Ultra-nationalist formation were almost destroyed during the siege of Mariupol but have managed to reconstitute themselves and are now engaging Russian troops along the line of contact and been used as an effective screen against Ukrainian deserters. Some have stated that Russia will have to reach the Polish-Ukrainian boarder in order to fulfil this goal (which would require millions of men to be drafted). De-militarization has occurred multiple times through out this war. The Original army Ukraine had was already destroyed. Most of the equipment that the Ukrainians started with has already been destroyed. With Russian strikes on arms depots, airfields and arms manufactories, the Ukrainians could not reform on their own. Their second army was formed out of the first wave of western arms shipments leading up to the Kharkov and Kerson offensive and the smaller Ukrainian offensives across the line of contact. All offensives toward Kerson failed with the Ukrainians taking heavy losses in men and machines. The Russians pulled out in good order in order to use the Russian paratroopers more effectively (currently in Bakhmut) and shorten the line of contact. The Kharkov was a big success for the Ukrainians but they suffered large losses due to Russian stand-off attacks.

The third army is what the Ukrainians have now. It is formed out of the second wave of arms shipments by the West and a new wave of conscription in Ukraine. Destruction could follow if the new encirclements in Bahkmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Siversk form up. The Ukrainian army is contantly battered by seemingly endless Russian shelling and missile strikes that hit the rear.