The growth of a New Sahelian Power
In this post I talk about the emergence of a new power within the Sahel region and the formation of a new union State between Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
On 9/16/2023 the states of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali signed a security agreement stating that they will come to the mutual defense of each other. The agreement states the creation of a “mutual assistance framework” as well. This new agreement comes months after a nationalist colonel’s coup ousted the French puppet president Mohamed Bazoum. These three countries have experienced widespread chaos due to the Salafist insurgency occurring within the north involving largely Tuareg peoples. A large amount of the discontent of the previous governments stems from the inability of the previous governments to handle the security situation. This is primarily why these new governments have looked toward the Russians for assistance because unlike the French, the Russians have a good track record for dealing with the security situations of its host countries (Syria and Kazakhstan are two good recent examples).
These states have faced a lot of external pressure. A large part is from France and its client plutocracies within the region. Ecowas has threatened military intervention into Niger while France has threatened its own intervention to reinstate its puppet ruler. Ecowas countries have sanction the Sahelian group with Nigeria going so far to cut power off from Niger. These policies are designed to force the population to concede to French demands. This external pressure has done the opposite. The colonel’s coup in Niger is more popular than ever. 80 percent of Nigeriens support the Coup government. This tells us that the government is here to stay and that it will continue its current policy of seeking integration with countries of similar outlook. The spirit of Pan-Africanism is well alive within this group of three. Ibrahim Traore has been described as Thomas Sankara reincarnated. His rhetoric and actions mimic the anti-imperialist and pan-African leader of the country back in the 80’s. President Ibrahim was also deployed to Mali to fight the same insurgency within his country. The governments popularity and rhetoric have caused alarm in many governments on the continent and fears that nationalist coups (I use nationalist in what’s best for the nation and anti-French/western sentiment) will spread to other parts of the continent. There has been a coup in Gabon, but so far the coup leaders seem to be continuing the program of the previous president.
These countries, increasing isolated from the rest of the region and France have no other choice to look between themselves to survive the sanctions ordeal and deal with the Salafist insurgency within their respective countries. The increasing military cooperation between themselves will naturally lead to increased economic cooperation. We will most likely see increased Russian industrial and military influence within the group of three. Bold economic steps are already being taken by the Nigerien government to raise the price of Uranium from just the French imposed 0.80 euros a kilogram to 200.00 Euros a kilogram. This new income will surely strengthen the Nigerien government and be used for infrastructure projects and general government expenditures. The Malians, Burkinabè and the Guineans have signed a trade agreement back in February. Niger is sure to join this agreement soon.
This is largely speculation, but I see the formation of a Union state between this group of three. The Guineans may join, but they have been less enthusiastic than the Malians and Burkinabe when it comes to support for the coup in Niger. We should look out for more economic and security agreements to come soon between this group of three. These countries will pursue a nationalist economic policy regarding internal economic development. We could see the dropping of the west African CFA franc as the currency of these three countries and the formation of a transnational currency. We should also look for joint infrastructure projects to facilitate cross border trade and joint agreements between this group of three and other countries, particularly Russia. The integration process would be a slow and steady process, but one that would need to happen for these countries to not come back under the domination of French neo-colonialism. The attempts by the French to assert dominance is speeding up this process as the group of three realize they cannot fight French neo-colonialism without close collaboration.
A possible Union state would contain a young and increasing population of 70 million people. The region is poor, only having a GDP of 52 billion US dollars and a current GDP per capita of 740 US dollars. The region is rich in mineral resources, specifically Uranium (Niger) and Gold (Burkina Faso and Mali). The potential for expansion of the extraction sector is great. As Niger plans on doing with the increase in Uranium Revenue, the money from the extraction industry should go to the funding of infrastructure, increasing the literacy rate and continuing the fight against the Salafist groups that plague the countries. The young population means there is fertile ground for less capital-intensive industries to migrate to the countries and there is no serious concern for a labor shortage any time soon. The new country would have a lot of economic potential. This potential will be realized by rational economic planning (socialist economic planning) and utilizing the global competition between the United States (and it’s western proxies) and the China/Russian wing of the new global order.
The problems faced are multiple. The Salafist insurgency is increasing in strength. To contain it would require deep cooperation by the group of 3 and foreign security assistance from global powers like Russia and regional powers like Algeria. The three countries are some of the poorest on the planet and are still home to considerable French influence. French is still an official language of the three countries and the West African CFA franc is still the currency. All three countries are land locked, meaning they rely on outside countries for access to the global market. The integration of Guinea into some sort of economic block would be paramount for access to the global market. The Guinea trade agreement with two of the three countries is a very good step in the right direction. Guinea does have sea access and can become a reliable place where this group of three can export their commodities and receive imports/economic assistance. Economic assistance from the Chinese and Russians would be needed for serious economic diversification away from the extraction sector and the raining of the quality of life of all peoples in the Sahel region.
The political will of the people of the Sahel and the need for a Union state in the Sahel are there. These European drawn borders are holding back African development and have destroyed it in the Sahel region. If not Pan-Africanism, integrated regional blocs are needed to have a sustained security architecture and economic development. These fictitious borders are only used to inhibit development and are directly responsible for the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. The Sahel three will not survive the onslaught organized by the French and what is prepared by the West in general unless they Unite.
References:
French threats of Force:
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/08/29/kztu-a29.html
Nigeria and Electricity:
https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-unicef-vaccines-5e7d6610635b0aa2ffe6570cc417930e
Support for the Coup in Niger:
https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-unicef-vaccines-5e7d6610635b0aa2ffe6570cc417930e
Ibrahim Traore:
Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso Trade pact
Niger increase in Uranium:
https://thedeepdive.ca/niger-boosts-price-of-uranium-to-e200-per-kilogram-from-just-0-80/